Scenario Planning and Cost Modeling

In uncertain markets or during major transitions, smart decisions depend on clear visibility into the future.

We help businesses build robust scenario planning and cost models that allow leadership teams to navigate change, evaluate options, and make confident, data-driven decisions.

Our work includes:

• Multi-scenario financial modeling (base, upside, downside)
• Dynamic cost modeling tied to revenue drivers
• Headcount and compensation planning
• Sensitivity analysis and break-even insights
• Capital allocation and cash runway forecasting

Whether you’re preparing for a sale, managing through volatility, or evaluating growth strategies, we give you the tools to see around corners — and plan with precision.

When the stakes are high, a spreadsheet isn’t enough. You need a model you can lead with.

Case Study

Industry / Context: Private investment in a regional hair-salon chain

Challenge
An investor group was evaluating a minority stake in a regional salon chain. The existing projections from the target company were optimistic but lacked realism—costs, capital needs, and growth assumptions didn’t align with the actual operations of the existing stores. Investors risked paying too much for growth that might not materialize.

What We Did
We stepped in to build a robust, dynamic financial model that not only captured historical performance but also allowed scenario analysis and decision-making for investors. We:

• Reviewed historical performance across the chain, including revenues, staffing, cost of supplies, rent, and occupancy
• Built a detailed cost model and revenue-model baseline reflecting the existing operational reality of the salon chain
• Created multiple scenarios (base-case, growth-case, downside) to reflect variations in occupancy growth, pricing, staffing efficiency, and cost structure
• Showed investors the impact of investing different amounts, growing the chain faster or slower, and varying profitability assumptions
• Provided a clear decision-tool that allowed investors to see “if we invest $X, and grow at Y% for Z years, here’s where we get” and “what if growth is half of Y%”
• Enabled the investor group to negotiate from a position of insight rather than assumption

Result
Because the model painted a more accurate and conservative picture of the business, the investors were able to negotiate better terms. They secured a significantly greater ownership stake in the chain for the same investment dollars than originally offered. The transaction aligned more closely with real operations and reduced risk of overpaying.